My official election prediction

Well, it isn't really a prediction.

Basically I'm combining my two favorite polling sources and a betting site and making a guess, the only point of which will be another post where I share how right -- or wrong -- I was.

So to avoid any lack of crediting, here are my sources:

FiveThirtyEight -- named for the total available electoral college votes and run by experienced pollster Nate Silver. This gets top billing because I trust it the most.

Pollster -- run by Mark Blumenthal, it's much more user friendly than 538 and I place nearly as much trust in its trends.

Intrade -- although it has had some fishy moments, I place a good deal of value in its state-by-state predictions.

OK, here's the prediction:

Obama/Biden: 353 McCain/Palin: 185

Obama will surely win: MA, CT, ME, NH, RI, VT, NY, NJ, MD, DC, DE, PA, MI, NM, CO, CA, WA, OR, HI, IL, WI, MN, IA

Obama will probably win: NV, OH, VA

I bet Obama takes: FL, NC

McCain will surely win: SC, TX, AL, LA, MS, TN, KY, OK, AR, WV, KS, NE, ND, SD, AZ, UT, ID, WY, AK

McCain will probably win: GA, MT

I bet McCain wins: IN, MO

Basically, I don't buy that McCain has any shot in Pennsylvania. I think Obama has Ohio pretty well in hand. I think Florida and North Carolina will both be close for Obama. I think Georgia will be close, but will go to McCain. And I'm doubtful Obama can pull off Indiana. But it will be an overwhelming victory for the Obama ticket.

Obama - 52% McCain - 45.5%, with remaining 2.5% going to third party candidates.

All in all, a terrific day for Democrats.

**********************

Best of the rest:

The best Senate race is without a doubt in Minnesota, where incumbent Republican Norm Coleman is battling SNL's Al Franken. Third party candidate Dean Barkley, with almost no money, has made this an exciting battle. Although Barkley has little chance, he has opened the door for Franken to take it. This is too close to predict.

Other races to watch:

• Liddy Dole likely to lose her seat in N.C.


• Ted Stevens likely to lose his seat in A.K. following fraud conviction.


• Saxby Chambliss, who won by defaming war hero Max Cleland in 2002, will probably still prevail in Georgia. If high African-American turnout puts Dem. candidate Jim Martin over the edge, it could be huge day for Obama and Dems.


• I expect Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell to win in K.Y.


• Watch Mississippi's race between Roger Wicker (R) and Ronnie Musgrove (D). A Dem win bodes well for them. Obama has been gaining in this deep South state.
  

Bottom line: Dems get 59 or 60 Senate seats (including Sanders (I-VT) but not Lieberman(mopey-CT), big majority in House, and a Democratic president.

Thanks Bush!